Brewers, upstart D'Backs kick off NLDS play at Miller Park

Baseball Betting Lines

10/01/2011 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After back-to-back seasons with over 90 losses there weren't many people who were picking the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the National League West this season.

But that's exactly what happened, as Arizona returns to the postseason for the first time since 2007 and opens the best-of-five National League Division Series this afternoon against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park.

Arizona lost 97 games last season and was an afterthought heading into this year. However, the team took on the identity of manager Kirk Gibson, got terrific seasons from an emerging ace in Ian Kennedy and a burgeoning superstar in Justin Upton and easily claimed the fifth division title in team history, finishing a comfortable eight games in front of the defending world champion San Francisco Giants.

"We finished a great regular season," Gibson said. "The team came together well, we're healthy, and now we've got some decisions to make to see how we're going to attack the Brewers."

Getting the ball for the Diamondbacks in Game 1 will be the 26-year-old Kennedy, who enjoyed a breakout campaign that saw him go 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA. He ended the year strong winning 13 of his final 14 decisions, including his last six, but this will be his first taste of postseason action.

"The playoffs are a totally different animal," Kennedy said. "I've got to experience that and it's something that the regular season can't hold. When you go to the playoffs, it's totally different."

Kennedy tossed seven scoreless to beat the Brewers earlier in the year and is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts against them.

Gibson's crew battled the Brewers for the second seed in the National League up until the season's final day before Milwaukee finally emerged.

While securing home-field for the first round was an important goal for both Milwaukee and Arizona, it was even more important for the Brewers, who set a franchise record by going 57-24 at Miller Park this season.

"It's special, said Ryan Braun. "We recognize that we're a really tough team to beat here. It's a huge advantage for us to know that we have home-field advantage, at least for the first round. It was definitely a goal of ours from the beginning of the year."

The Brewers were a trendy pick in NL Central entering the year thanks to the acquisitions of Shaun Marcum and Zach Greinke, After a rough start to the year Milwaukee began to separate itself from the pack and claimed its first division title since winning the American League East in 1982, the same year of the team's last and only trip to the World Series.

Milwaukee, back in the postseason for the first time since 2007 and only the fourth time in team history, will open the series with right-hander Yovani Gallardo, who led the team in wins (17) and strikeouts (207) while working 207 1/3 innings, and pitched the team's only complete game.

Over his final three regular-season starts Gallardo pitched to a 1.77 ERA and struck out 36 batters over 20 1/3 frames.

"I'm going to just focus on the game," said Gallardo, who did not allow an earned run in seven innings in the 2008 postseason. "That's the goal. Obviously, it's going to be exciting for all of us, but I just need to do what I've been doing all year."

The Mexican hurler has also dominated the Dimaondbacks over the course of his career, going a perfect 5-0 in five starts against them, while pitching to a splendid 1.20 ERA.

Arizona won four of its seven meetings with the Diamondbacks this past season.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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