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09/03/2010 - Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Landon Donovan and manager Bruce Arena both agreed after last week's loss to the Kansas City Wizards that the Los Angeles Galaxy were "outcompeted."
Davy Arnaud had a goal and an assist to lead K.C. to a 2-0 victory at The Home Depot Center, handing the Galaxy (13-5-4) their second home loss this season.
"I think that we got outcompeted. All this was about tonight was fighting and scrapping and we lost that fight. I think that was the difference in the game; they played harder," Arena said.
"I think we were outcompeted. It has to be clear that the next time we step on the field each and every player has to have a better effort," Donovan said.
L.A. returns to MLS action Saturday against the Chicago Fire and Donovan feels the Galaxy need to rebound from their embarrassing performance at Toyota Park this weekend.
"We don't mind playing well and competing well and giving up a goal at some point and losing a game. That's not the issue. The issue is, you don't want to get outcompeted, especially on your home field," Donovan said.
"That's a little embarrassing and we can't let that happen."
Since starting the season on a 12-game unbeaten streak, including 10 wins, the Galaxy are just 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. L.A. has lost three of its last four, although the lone victory was at Red Bull New York.
L.A.'s grip on the top record in MLS could slip away this week, as Columbus is just two points back entering its game against D.C. United. L.A. defender Todd Dunivant felt it was important to revert back to early-season form soon.
"We have to be more of a scrappy team, a blue-collar team. We've gotten away from that. I think that we've listened too much to the hype of being in first place and gotten a little complacent," Dunivant said.
Arena will be without Chris Birchall due to yellow card accumulation, but L.A. is in much better shape than Chicago in that category, as the Fire's Freddie Ljungberg is also out through accumulated cards.
The Fire are also without midfielder Marco Pappa and defender Deris Umanzor, who are with the Guatemala and El Salvador national teams, respectively.
Although L.A. maintains a firm grip on a playoff spot, Chicago (6-7-6) faces a battle to reach the postseason. The Fire have lost two straight, but also have an edge on the rest of MLS because they have played the fewest matches at 19.
Chicago's clash against L.A., the first of six in September for the Fire, also marks the first match for veteran Brian McBride since he announced Friday he plans to retire at the end of the season.
<< Twins promote P Fox, two others
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have purchased the
contract of pitcher Matt Fox from Triple-A Rochester.
The right-hander is slated to start Friday's series opener against the Texas
Rangers. It will be his major
<< Carpenter tops Power for first IndyCar pole at Kentucky
Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ed Carpenter earned his first pole in the IZOD
IndyCar Series after edging points leader Will Power in Friday's qualifying
for the Kentucky Indy 300 at Kentucky Speedway.
Carpenter, making just his thir
<< Rangers activate Nippert from DL
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers made a series of roster
moves on Friday, including activating pitcher Dustin Nippert from the 15-day
disabled list.
Nippert landed on the DL on July 20, one day after he was struck i
<< Red Bulls hope to end RSL's home streak
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York travels to take on Real Salt
Lake at Rio Tinto Stadium on Saturday night in Major League Soccer action.
Both teams are in second place in their respective conference tables, with RSL
holding
Rapids not taking Chivas for granted >>
Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rapids will continue their
playoff push on Saturday when they host Western Conference cellar-dwellars,
Chivas USA at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
Colorado enters the weekend in fifth p
Granderson, Yanks win seventh straight >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Curtis Granderson doubled twice and drove in
three runs, as New York beat the Toronto Blue Jays, 7-3, in the opener of a
three-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Brett Gardner hit an RBI triple and scored
NCAA reverses decision; Masoli to play for Ole Miss in 2010 >>
Oxford, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli will
be able to play for the Ole Miss Rebels this season after the NCAA overturned
a previous decision that stated the signal-caller must sit out a year.
Masoli enro
Diamondbacks bring up veteran P Hampton >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks purchased the contract
of 15-season veteran Mike Hampton on Friday from Triple-A Reno.
Hampton was signed by the club on August 21 after making 21 starts for Houston
last season, going
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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